Market Update 09-26-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.16% for the week ending Friday 9/16 as prices rose 0.22 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $44.48 per barrel on Friday, down 3.45% for the day, but increasing 1.97% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 3.22% daily loss to close at $45.89 per barrel on Friday, but up about 0.26% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.41 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.74.
  • Crude oil prices ran up for most of the week, dropping most of the gains on Friday, but ultimately gaining for the week. Crude oil inventories have dropped for the 3rd consecutive week, one sign that the market may be beginning to balance itself out. Crude oil was up sharply on Monday this week on renewed hopes of an OPEC production limit, but after months of similar rumors, it will be interesting to see if any action is taken.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures increased 0.7 cents, or 0.24%, for the week ending 9/23 to settle at $2.955 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.77%, while total demand decreased by 1.97% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 0.747% decrease in marketed production, while an 83.33% decrease in LNG pipeline receipts impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 16th was 52 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 83 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 96 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 140 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 268 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 52 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract fell about 3 cents, trading at $3.04 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $5.62 to $38.14 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $59.92 between 4-5 pm last Wednesday (9/21) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $7.75 to average $36.67 per MWh, topping out at $84.87 on Tuesday (9/20) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.02 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.36 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.20 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.04 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose last week as temperatures exceeded seasonal norms by nearly 8 degrees.  Highs are expected to drop back into the 70s for most of the week, so peak prices are expected to fall. In futures markets, electric prices hardly moved, which mirrored the movements in the natural gas markets. No major change in forecasts or news meant there was no push in either direction.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 7.57°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/23), coming in 0.43°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down significantly, with highs around 71°F and lows around 60°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 2.36°F above seasonal averages, and 7.86°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were well above seasonal averages last week as we reached the official end of summer.  Temperatures are expected to drop down over the next week in the Northeast, which was felt by many this past weekend. Fall is officially here.

Leave a Comment September 29, 2016

Market Update 09-19-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 1.48% for the week ending Friday 9/16 as prices fell 2.53 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $43.03 per barrel on Friday, down 1.56% for the day, and decreasing 6.21% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 1.17% daily loss to close at $45.77 per barrel on Friday, and down about 4.67% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.74 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.13.
  • Crude oil prices fell significantly last week due to signs of slowing demand and increasing supply. Libya stated that they will begin to resume exporting oil, adding more supply to an already saturated market. US retail sales dropped 0.3%, greater than the expected 0.1% drop, showing signs that the economy may be beginning to pull back.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures increased 15.1 cents, or 5.40%, for the week ending 9/16 to settle at $2.948 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.38%, while total demand increased by 4.10% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was primarily due to a 11.32% increase in net Canadian imports, while a 4.37% increase in U.S. consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 9th was 62 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 69 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 74 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 184 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 299 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 65 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.86 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $8.59 to $32.52 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $60.48 between 4-5 pm last Wednesday (9/14) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $8.76 to average $28.92 per MWh, topping out at $73.40 on Wednesday (9/14) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.94 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.06 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.32 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.22 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell last week as temperatures returned to more comfortable levels.  Highs are expected to remain in the low-80s for most of the week, keeping price expectations low. In futures markets, electric prices fell slightly even as natural gas prices ran up. Forecasts have not changed much, which makes the gas run up more unexplainable than the falling electric prices.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 2.79°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/16), coming in 0.43°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to remain steady, with highs around 81°F and lows around 65°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 7.14°F above seasonal averages, and 1.64°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures look to be cooling off as we approach the official end of summer. Long term forecasts still point to a mild autumn.

Leave a Comment September 29, 2016

Market Update 09-12-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 1.48% for the week ending Friday 9/9 as prices rose 2.08 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $45.88 per barrel on Friday, down 3.13% for the day, but increasing 3.24% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 3.26% daily loss to close at $48.01 per barrel on Friday, but up about 2.52% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.13 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $2.39.
  • Crude oil prices climbed nearly 7% before backing off on Friday. A massive 14.5 million barrel decline in US oil crude reserves, mostly caused by shutdowns related to tropical storm activity in the Gulf, sent the market higher, but increased oil rig counts and the speculation of a US interest rate hike have kept prices in check.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures increased 0.5 cents, or 0.18%, for the week ending 9/9 to settle at $2.797 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Last week, August NYMEX settled at $2.871 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 1.39%, while total demand decreased by 6.44% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 14.52% decrease in net Canada imports, while a 7.89% decrease in U.S. consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 2nd was 36 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 64 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 78 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 196 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 306 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 43 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract rose about 3 cents, trading at $2.78 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $5.20 to $41.11 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $89.02 between 4-5 pm last Friday (9/9) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $7.05 to average $37.68 per MWh, topping out at $108.35 on Thursday (9/8) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.33 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.46 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.28 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.20 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose last week as the Northeast had a brief spike in temperatures, averaging nearly 7 degrees above the norm. Temperatures are expected to fall about 6 degrees this week, making things feel much more comfortable and lowering prices. In futures markets, electric prices rose as natural gas prices increased. Net injections for gas continue to be lower than the 5 year average, moving storage numbers closer to historical numbers. The lowering of storage numbers can cause the risk of price spikes to increase if the winter turns out to be cold.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 6.86°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/9), coming in 0.50°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down a bit, with highs around 79°F and lows around 65°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 3.21°F above seasonal averages, and 6.00°F colder than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were unseasonably warm last week as temperatures reached 80 degrees every day. Long term forecasts for this winter expect a La Nina effect, meaning the Northeast could be in line for a cold, wet winter.

Leave a Comment September 29, 2016

Market Update 09-06-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 6.70% for the week ending Friday 9/2 as prices fell 10.15 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $44.44 per barrel on Friday, up 2.04% for the day, but decreasing 6.72% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 2.27% daily gain to close at $46.83 per barrel on Friday, but down about 6.62% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.39 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.28.
  • Crude oil prices rose significantly on Friday, but were unable to recover the losses from earlier in the week, ending down nearly 7%. Comments from Saudi Arabia and Russia last Friday about a production freeze were one of the main causes for the jump on Friday, along with a weakening dollar following a weak August jobs report. Over the weekend, those talks waned once again with overall market sentiment expecting crude oil prices to remain in the mid-40s for the near future.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures decreased 12.1 cents, or 4.15%, for the week ending 9/2 to settle at $2.792 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Last week, August NYMEX settled at $2.853 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.75%, while total demand decreased by 12.1% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was due to a 0.7% decrease in dry production, while an 11.1% decrease in U.S. consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending August 26th was 51 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 67 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 88 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 238 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 334 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 42 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract fell about 4 cents, trading at $2.80 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $1.60 to $35.91 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $70.02 between 4-5 pm last Monday (8/29) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $1.19 to average $30.63 per MWh, topping out at $74.52 on Monday (8/29) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.57 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.20 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $1.04 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.65 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing stayed relatively level last week as temperatures were pretty close to the previous. Expect similar temperatures again this week and for peak prices to continue to hover in the mid-30s. In future markets, electric prices in both NJ and NY markets fell as natural gas fell over 4% week over week.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 4.14°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/2), coming in 1.43°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to remain relatively warm, with highs around 85°F and lows around 70°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 6.36°F above seasonal averages, and 0.29°F warmer than last week’s average
  • Temperatures were unseasonably warm last week with highs breeching 85°F four times as we headed into the unofficial end of summer. Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages for the near future as well as the long term forecasts.

Leave a Comment September 29, 2016

Market Update 08-29-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 1.1% for the week ending Friday 8/26 as prices fell 1.7 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $47.64 per barrel on Friday, up 0.57% for the day, but decreasing 3.00% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 0.52% daily gain to close at $49.92 per barrel on Friday, but down about 1.9% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.28 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $2.36.
  • Crude oil prices fell last week as hope for an OPEC production freeze continues to fade. OPEC will hold an informal meeting next month in Alergia, but Saudi Arabia recently made comments saying it sees no need for major intervention to restore the balance between supply and demand. A strong dollar is also to blame for falling prices as it hit a 2-week high this morning.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures increased 19.2 cents, or 7.17%, for the week ending 8/26 to settle at $2.871 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.1%, while total demand decreased by 5.0% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was due to a 7.4% decrease in Canadian imports, while an 11.6% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending August 19th was 11 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 66 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 63 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 275 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 350 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 18 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the September natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.85 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $18.97 to $34.31 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $70.80 between 4-5 pm last Friday (8/26) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $12.05 to average $31.82 per MWh, topping out at $83.14 on Friday (8/26) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.694 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.82 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.33 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.36 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing dropped significantly as highs for the first half of the last week were much cooler, coming in at around 80 degrees. This week looks be the inverse of last week, with warmer temperatures in the first half before dropping off to milder temperatures. Look for peak prices to stay in the same range next week.  In future markets electric prices were up as natural gas prices rose over 7% last week.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 2.57°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/26), coming in 0.07°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down a bit, with highs around 84°F and lows around 67°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 2.71°F above seasonal averages, but 1.21°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were supposed to return to seasonal averages last week, but the cooler temperatures didn’t stick around for long before returning to nearly 90 degrees for most of the weekend.  Above average temperatures are expected for the first half of the week, before returning to seasonal norms for the holiday weekend.

Leave a Comment September 29, 2016

Market Update 08-23-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 7.88% for the week ending Friday 8/19 as prices rose 11.1 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $48.52 per barrel on Friday, up 0.39% for the day, and increasing 9.06% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 0.16% daily loss to close at $50.88 per barrel on Friday, and up about 8.32% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.36 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $2.48.
  • Crude oil prices closed higher every day last week, hitting an 8-week high as crude closed higher for the 7th consecutive session. Crude is up nearly 25% since the beginning of August after both Saudi Arabia and Russia have made comments about stabilizing oil prices. On the other side of things, the US oil rig count increased for the 8th consecutive week, which signifies a limited upside on price increases as more output is expected to come online.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures decreased 0.2 cents, or 0.08%, for the week ending 8/19 to settle at $2.584 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.8%, while total demand increased by 1.6% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was due to a 0.4% rise in dry production, while a 4.4% increase in power consumption impacted demand.  It is important to mention that despite this week’s decrease, Canadian imports are still well above seasonal norms, coming in at 6.9 Bcf/d as opposed to 6.1 Bcf/d at this time last year.  These numbers generally peak in January at the height of the winter heating season.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending August 12th was 22 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 57 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 56 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 327 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 405 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 26 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the September natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.66/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $3.04 to $53.28 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $94.89 between 4-5 pm last Tuesday (8/16) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $2.08 to average $43.86 per MWh, topping out at $97.42 on Monday (8/15) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.74 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.17 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.90 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.47 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing continued its rise last week as temperatures remained above seasonal averages. With temperatures expected to be a bit cooler for most of this week, it is likely that we will see prices come down again. In future markets electric prices were up, despite a slight decrease in natural gas prices. Updated weather forecasts have caused traders to increase their long positions for this upcoming winter, which led to most of the price gains.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 6.07°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/19), coming in 0.21°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down a bit, with highs around 84°F and lows around 69°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 2.50°F above seasonal averages, but 4.57°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • After a couple weeks of very warm temperatures, the Northeast is expected to return to more seasonal temperatures for the upcoming week. This August was the 3rd hottest on record for New York City to date, averaging nearly 4 degrees above historical norms.

Leave a Comment August 23, 2016

Market Update 08-15-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 7.00% for the week ending Friday 8/12 as prices rose 9.16 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $44.49 per barrel on Friday, up 2.37% for the day, and increasing 6.44% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 1.68% daily gain to close at $46.97 per barrel on Friday, and up about 6.10% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.48 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.47.
  • Crude oil prices continued their climb as they hit three-week highs, with gains continuing into Monday.  Russian energy officials hinted that they may be open to having talks with other oil production giants in the Middle East in the near future, while OPEC considers freezing output in order to stabilize oil prices which have been consistently low.   The market responded to this news, hoping that the recent global trend of oversupply in crude oil would soon be curbed

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures decreased 16.2 cents, or 5.90%, for the week ending 8/12 to settle at $2.586 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.5%, while total demand decreased by 1.3% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was due to a 5.6% fall in Canadian imports, while a 1.3% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.  It is important to mention that despite this week’s decrease, Canadian imports are still well above seasonal norms, coming in at 6.8 Bcf/d as opposed to 5.3 Bcf/d at this time last year.  These numbers generally peak in January at the height of the winter heating season.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending August 5th was 29 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 53 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 57 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 361 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 440 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 24 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the September natural gas futures contract fell about 3 cents, trading at $2.54 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $15.38 to $50.24 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $100.00 between 3-4 pm last Friday (8/12) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $10.12 to average $41.78 per MWh, topping out at $120.13 on Friday (8/12) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.18 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.28 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.75 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.25 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose significantly last week as temperatures came back up above seasonal averages. With temperatures expected to approach 90 degrees several days this week, it is likely prices will remain high. In future markets electric prices were up, mirroring the increase in temperature. It was even warmer than forecasted last week, and this hot weather coupled with above average temperature forecasts contributed to an increase in prices going forward.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 5.50°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/12), coming in 0.21°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to remain hot, with highs around 89°F and lows around 74°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 5.86°F above seasonal averages, 0.21°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • For this week, temperatures are expected to follow similar patterns, with temperatures remaining higher than normal in the northeast and at or below seasonal averages across most other parts of the country.  Temperature forecasts for the month of August remain high and will average above seasonal norms across the nation.

Leave a Comment August 16, 2016

Market Update 08-09-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.73% for the week ending Friday 8/5 as prices rose 0.95 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $41.80 per barrel on Friday, down 0.01% for the day, but increasing 0.48% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 0.20% daily gain to close at $44.27 per barrel on Friday, and up about 1.70% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.47 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.97.
  • Crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows last week with gains continuing into Monday.  Hopes that oil exporters would freeze production fueled the increase, though many still hold concerns about an oversupply of oil and gasoline.  Skeptics also worry that talks to limit production will fall through, resulting in little being done to reduce the global glut of crude.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures decreased 12.8 cents, or 4.45%, for the week ending 8/5 to settle at $2.748 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.2%, while total demand increased by 2.83% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was due to a 1.4% rise in marketed production as well as a 1.4% rise in dry production, while a 8.3% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending July 29th was 6 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 54 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 41 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 389 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 464 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 3 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the August natural gas futures contract rose about 4 cents, trading at $2.88 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $21.22 to $34.86 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $46.58 between 4-5 pm last Monday (8/1) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $16.63 to average $31.66 per MWh, topping out at $55.03 on Monday (8/1) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.75 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.51 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $1.24 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.84 per MWh.Peak electric pricing fell significantly last week as temperatures came back down below seasonal averages. With temperatures expected to rise back up to the high 80s several days this week, it is likely prices will increase again. In future markets electric prices were down, mirroring the decrease in temperature. It was even cooler than forecasted last week, and despite an expected increase in temperatures this week, there was a decrease in prices going forward.  This is likely a reaction to temperatures falling even lower than predicted last week.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.50°F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/5), coming in 0.79°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase significantly, with highs around 88°F and lows around 74°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 5.00°F above seasonal averages, 6.21°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • For this week, temperatures are expected to come back up above seasonal averages in the northeast, and remain at or below seasonal averages across the rest of the country.  Despite the recent break from the heat, temperature forecasts for the month of August remain high and will average above seasonal norms.

Leave a Comment August 10, 2016

Market Update 07-18-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 2.27% for the week ending Friday 7/15 as prices fell 3.21 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in August closed at $45.95 per barrel on Friday, up 0.9% for the day, and increasing 1.19% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in August recorded a 1.23% daily gain to close at $47.61 per barrel on Friday, but up about 1.82% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.66 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.35.
  • Crude oil prices fell last week due to increased supply from US oil rigs and high production abroad.  Prices remain low to begin the week as news of a failed coup in Turkey eased concerns over a decrease in production from the middle-eastern country.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (August) natural gas futures decreased 4.5 cents, or 1.61%, for the week ending 7/15 to settle at $2.756 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply remained constant, while total demand increased by 4.4% from last week.  The consistency in supply this week was due to a lack of change in production values, while a 3.0% increase in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending July 7th was 64 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 77 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 95 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 507 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 586 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 60 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the August natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.76 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $2.50 to $42.32 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $81.29 between 3-4 pm last Friday (7/15) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $4.19 to average $38.13 per MWh, topping out at $87.21 on Thursday (7/14) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $2.15 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.89 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $1.03 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.70 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell slightly as highs were a bit below predictions last week. With highs expected to be in the same range this week, expect to see high peak prices once again.  In futures markets, electric prices decreased as natural gas prices fell back down about 2%.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.43°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 7/16), coming in 0.5°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase, with highs around 89°F and lows around 73°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 4.43°F above seasonal averages, 3.00°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures will remain hot for the second week in a row, and the forecast for the rest of July shows that there will be very few breaks from the heat. Long term forecasts for the rest of the summer still project to be above average for all of North America, so any relief would likely be temporary.

Leave a Comment July 21, 2016

Market Update 07-11-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 6.9% for the week ending Friday 7/8 as prices fell 10.5 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in August closed at $45.41 per barrel on Friday, up 0.5% for the day, but decreasing 7.3% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in August recorded a 0.3% daily gain to close at $46.76 per barrel on Friday, but down about 7.1% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.35 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.11.Crude oil prices fell last week as China and other Asian countries began showing signs of slowing demand. Additionally, the U.S rig count rising 5 of the last 6 weeks and a strong dollar are a few of the other factors driving oil prices downward.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (August) natural gas futures decreased 18.6 cents, or 6.23%, for the week ending 7/8 to settle at $2.801 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased by 1.0%, while total demand decreased by 3.7% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was primarily due to a 1.2% week to week increase in dry production, while a 5.0% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending July 1st was 39 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 77 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 83 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 538 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 599 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 42 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the August natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.83 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $9.69 to $44.82 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $90.99 between 4-5 pm last Friday (7/8) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $11.19 to average $42.31 per MWh, topping out at $109.47 on Thursday (7/7) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.30 per MWh in NYC and decreased $1.09 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.16 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.57 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing jumped significantly as highs were well above average last week, creating the first heat wave of the summer. With highs expected to be in the same range this week, expect to see similarly high peak prices.  In futures markets, electric prices fell across the board as natural gas prices fell back down about 7%.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 0.36°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 7/9), coming in 3.36°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase, with highs around 85°F and lows around 71°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 1.93°F above seasonal averages, 2.07°F warmer than last week’s average. Temperatures will remain hot this week, but the forecast for the second half of July has come down a bit since last week showing there may be some relief in sight. Long term forecasts for the rest of the summer still project to be above average for all of North America, so any relief would only be temporary.

Leave a Comment July 12, 2016

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