Market Update 11-21-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 4.03% for the week ending Friday, 11/18, as prices rose 5.65 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in December closed at $46.86 per barrel on Friday, up 1.76% for the day, and increasing 4.72% for the week.
  • Crude oil prices rebounded after a month-long slide to approach $50 per barrel to begin the week.  The rally comes amidst renewed optimism that an OPEC production limit will be established when the group meets on November 30th.  Gains were tempered by a stronger US dollar, which has risen based on the expectation that an interest rate hike will occur next month.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (December) natural gas futures increased 22.4 cents, or 8.55%, for the week ending Friday, 11/18, to settle at $2.843 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.52%, while total demand increased by 5.84% from last week.  The change in supply was partially due to a 0.70% increase in dry production, while a 6.24% increase in US consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending November 4th was 30 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 3 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 26 Bcf.  Working gas inventories increased to an all-time high of 4,047 Bcf, totaling 51 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 216 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 30 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the December natural gas futures contract fell 3 cents, trading at $2.71/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $5.35 to $22.95 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $35.98 between 5-6 PM last Wednesday, 11/16, in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $1.75 to average $27.80 per MWh, topping out at $43.07 on Monday, 11/14, between 5-6 PM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $1.70 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.75 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.85 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.33 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell in NYC last week as moderate temperatures kept demand in check. This week, temperatures are expected to be significantly cooler, so prices should begin to climb along with the demand for heating.  Futures markets saw only modest changes from last week.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 5.00°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 11/20), coming in 1.50°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down, with highs around 48°F and lows around 39°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 1.79°F below seasonal averages, and 9.14°F colder than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures stayed above seasonal averages last week, though they remained just short of forecasted highs.  Look for this week’s temperatures to come down closer to seasonal norms to end up significantly below last week’s averages. Long term forecasts are predicting the Northeast to be slightly above seasonal norms despite colder weather in the near future.

Leave a Comment November 21, 2016

Market Update 11-07-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 4.23% for the week ending Friday, 11/4, as prices fell 12.73 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in December closed at $45.58 per barrel on Friday, down 1.83% for the day, and decreasing 10.08% for the week.
  • Crude oil prices dropped to their lowest point in months following the biggest weekly loss since January, before rebounding slightly to begin the week. Reports of Saudi Arabia threatening to increase their oil output if Iran refused to limit their production caused the market to fall considerably, but losses were tempered by expectations involving the upcoming US presidential election.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (December) natural gas futures decreased 33.8 cents, or 10.89%, for the week ending Friday, 11/4, to settle at $2.767 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.39%, while total demand increased by 2.60% from last week. The change in supply was partially due to 4.76% decrease in net Canadian imports, while a 5.17% increase in US power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending October 21st was 54 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 63 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 58 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 48 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 173 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 57 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the December natural gas futures contract rose 4 cents, trading at $2.81/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $0.96 to $29.38 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $41.35 between 6-7PM last Tuesday, 11/1, in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $2.35 to average $24.82 per MWh, topping out at $36.46 on Wednesday, 11/2, between 6-7PM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $1.69 per MWh in NYC and decreased $1.33 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.68 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.68 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing saw only modest changes last week, as temperatures were comfortably warm and demand for electricity was kept in check. This week, temperatures are expected to see a significant decrease from last week, so peak prices are likely to begin rising in anticipation of colder weather and as people begin turning on their heat. In futures markets, short term prices decreased slightly after a week of relatively warm temperatures, while 2017 prices saw little change.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 4.86°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 11/6), coming in 1.36°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool back down a bit, with highs around 56°F and lows around 44°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 0.14°F above seasonal averages, and 6.71°F colder than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were a bit warmer than expected last week, staying slightly above the forecasted values and remaining about five degrees higher than seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to come back down close to seasonal norms over the next week in the Northeast, coming in well below last week’s averages to give us a relatively normal week of fall weather.

Leave a Comment November 7, 2016

Market Update 10-28-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 4.23% for the week ending Friday, 10/28, as prices fell $2.15 per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in December closed at $48.70 per barrel on Friday, down 1.83% for the day, and decreasing 4.23% for the week.
  • Crude oil prices fell below $50.00 a barrel to hit one-month lows as a strong US dollar limited demand. The number of rigs operating in the states is also at its highest point since February, keeping supply on the high end of the spectrum. Finally, several OPEC members indicated reluctance to cut their oil production levels, again creating doubt that a deal would ever be put into effect to stabilize prices.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (December) natural gas futures decreased 25.6 cents, or 8.55%, for the week ending Friday, 10/28, to settle at $3.105 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). November futures settled at $2.764 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 2.11%, while total demand increased by 4.69% from last week. The change in supply was partially due to 23.53% increase in net Canadian imports, while a 38.39% increase in US residential and commercial power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending October 21st was 73 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 76 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 67 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 52 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 182 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 74 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the December natural gas futures contract fluctuated within a 2 cent range, trading at $3.05/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $2.89 to $28.41 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $42.86 between 6-7PM last Wednesday, 10/26, in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $5.26 to average $27.17 per MWh, topping out at $37.58 on Wednesday, 10/26, between 7-8PM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $6.37 per MWh in NYC and increased $4.75 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.25 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.04 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell last week, as temperatures were unseasonably cold and demand for electricity increased. This week, temperatures are expected to see a significant increase from last week, so peak prices are likely to remain steady as the more comfortable weather keeps electricity demand in check. In futures markets, short term prices increased in anticipation of colder weather arriving, while 2017 prices saw only modest changes.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 4.43°F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 10/29), coming in 1.07°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to warm back up a bit, with highs around 63°F and lows around 48°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 3.50°F above seasonal averages, and 6.00°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were even colder than expected last week, staying slightly below the forecasted values and remaining well below seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to rise back up above seasonal norms over the next week in the Northeast, coming in well above last week’s averages to give us a relatively mild week of fall weather.

Leave a Comment October 28, 2016

Market Update 10-21-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.43% for the week ending Friday, 10/21, as prices rose 0.67 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in November closed at $50.85 per barrel on Friday, up 0.38% for the day, and increasing 0.20% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in November recorded a 0.74% daily gain to close at $51.78 per barrel on Friday, but down about 0.33% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $0.93 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $1.60.
  • Crude oil prices stayed above $50.00 a barrel after comments from Russian authorities reaffirmed the country’s intentions to take part in a global oil supply freeze.  Gains were put in check by a later statement from Iraq, which said that they would prefer not to be a part of OPEC’s potential production freeze.  Many remain skeptical regarding this deal, questioning when and how such a plan will be implemented.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas futures decreased 29.2 cents, or 8.89%, for the week ending Friday, 10/21, to settle at $2.993 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 1.56%, while total demand decreased by 0.90% from last week.  The change in supply was partially due to 17.74% decrease in net Canada imports, while a 1.05% decrease in US power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending October 14th was 77 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 84 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 87 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 46 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 185 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 73 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the November natural gas futures contract fell about 2 cents, trading at $3.12/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $9.77 to $31.31 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $46.57 between 4-5PM last Wednesday, 10/19, in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $15.27 to average $32.43 per MWh, topping out at $61.04 on Tuesday, 10/18, between 4-5PM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $1.40 per MWh in NYC and decreased $2.71 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.29 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.21 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose last week, as temperatures were unseasonably warm and demand for electricity increased. This week, temperatures are expected to see a sharp decrease from last week, so peak prices are likely to fall as demand for electricity lessens. In futures markets, short term prices decreased along with falling natural gas prices, while 2017 prices saw only modest changes.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 10.29°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 10/22), coming in 0.86°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down significantly, with highs around 56°F and lows around 44°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 3.36°F below seasonal averages, and 15.79°F colder than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were very close to what was expected last week, staying slightly below the forecasted values, but much higher than seasonal averages.  Temperatures are expected to fall drastically over the next week in the Northeast, coming in below last week’s averages by over 15°F and making many of us reach for our warmer clothing.

Leave a Comment October 21, 2016

Market Update 10-18-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 0.76% for the week ending Friday, 10/14, as prices fell 1.20 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in November closed at $50.35 per barrel on Friday, down 0.45% for the day, but increasing 1.08% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in November recorded a 0.21% daily loss to close at $51.95 per barrel on Friday, but up about 0.04% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.60 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $2.12.
  • Crude oil prices hovered around $50.00 a barrel after remaining relatively stagnant last week.  Iranian officials indicated that they are looking to increase their market share by boosting production back to 2012 levels, contributing to a bearish sentiment.  Continued hopes of an OPEC agreement to limit production worked to contradict this bearish trend, limiting losses and keeping prices stable despite the statement from Iran.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas futures increased 36.9 cents, or 12.70%, through Monday, 10/10, to settle at $3.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply remained constant, while total demand increased by 1.68% from last week.  While there was no overall change in supply figures from last week, a 1.79% increase in US power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending October 7th was 79 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 92 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 97 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 56 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 192 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas futures increased 1.0 cents, or 0.31%, for the week ending Friday, 10/14, to settle at $3.285 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $0.67 to $21.54 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $27.79 between 7-8PM last Thursday, 10/13, in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $3.51 to average $17.15 per MWh, topping out at $27.42 on Friday, 10/14, between 7-8PM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.95 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.07 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.26 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.27 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell last week, as temperatures were a bit cooler than forecasted and demand for electricity stayed low. This week, temperatures are expected to see a sharp increase from last week, so peak prices are likely to rise as demand for electricity becomes greater. In futures markets, short term prices dropped slightly, while 2017 prices saw only modest changes.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.21°F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 10/15), coming in 0.14°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to warm up significantly, with highs around 75°F and lows around 59°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 11.14°F above seasonal averages, and 10.29°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were very close to what was expected last week, staying slightly below both the forecasted values and seasonal averages.  Temperatures are expected to rise sharply over the next week in the Northeast, surpassing last week’s averages by over 10°F and reaching 80°F on multiple days.

Leave a Comment October 18, 2016

Market Update 10-11-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 2.67% for the week ending Friday, 10/7, as prices rose 4.10 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in November closed at $49.81 per barrel on Friday, down 1.54% for the day, but increasing 3.25% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in November recorded a 1.50% daily loss to close at $51.93 per barrel on Friday, but up about 3.47% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.12 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.95.
  • Crude oil prices continued to climb last week and through the beginning of this week, bringing Brent futures to a one-year high.  Prices rose after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his country would be receptive to a deal with other oil-producing nations to cut output and stabilize prices.  Hopes of an OPEC production limit continue to boost oil prices, but many remain doubtful after many months of speculation and wonder if this deal will ever be implemented.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas futures increased 36.9 cents, or 12.70%, through Monday, 10/10, to settle at $3.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased by 1.16%, while total demand decreased by 4.24% from last week.  The change in supply was partially due to a 1.54% decrease in dry production, while a 13.65% decrease in US power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 30th was 80 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 95 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 96 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 74 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 205 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 71 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the November natural gas futures contract fell about 4 cents, trading at $2.98/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $0.34 to $22.21 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $29.80 between 7-8PM last Thursday, 10/6, in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $3.31 to average $20.66 per MWh, topping out at $34.30 on Monday, 10/3, between 7-8PM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.21 per MWh in NYC and increased $1.50 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.26 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.23 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell last week, as temperatures were a bit cooler than forecasted and demand for electricity stayed low.  Temperatures are expected to see a decline from last week, so peak prices are likely to decrease as demand for electricity wanes. In futures markets, short term prices rose, though 2017 prices saw only modest changes.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 2.79°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 10/8), coming in 0.14°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down, with highs around 64°F and lows around 49°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 1.00°F below seasonal averages, and 6.50°F colder than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were slightly cooler than expected last week, though they did stay above seasonal averages as has been typical in recent months.  Temperatures are expected to decline over the next week in the Northeast, falling significantly from last week to drop below seasonal averages.

Leave a Comment October 11, 2016

Market Update 10-03-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 8.52% for the week ending Friday 9/30 as prices rose 12.08 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in November closed at $48.24 per barrel on Friday, up 1.00% for the day, and increasing 8.45% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in November recorded a 0.86% daily gain to close at $50.19 per barrel on Friday, and up about 7.98% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.95 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.41.
  • Crude oil prices increased for most of the week, dropping a bit on Tuesday, but ultimately recording significant gains to reach three-month highs. Prices rose on the heels of Iran’s assertion that other oil producing countries should join OPEC and raise prices to stabilize the market. Hopes of an OPEC production limit continue to boost oil prices, but after months of similar rumors, it will be interesting to see if any action is taken.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas futures decreased 14.9 cents, or 4.88%, for the week ending 9/30 to settle at $2.906 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).  October futures settled at $2.952 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply did not change, while total demand decreased by 2.01% from last week.  While supply stayed constant, a 1.85% decrease in US power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 23rd was 49 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 97 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 99 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 90 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 220 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 53 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the November natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $3.00 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $15.59 to $22.55 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $32.36 between 7-8 pm last Tuesday (9/27) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $19.32 to average $17.35 per MWh, topping out at $26.36 on Monday (9/26) between 7-8 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $2.96 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.92 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.24 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.41 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell last week, as temperatures were cooler than forecasted and demand for electricity stayed low.  Temperatures are expected to remain relatively consistent from last week, so peak prices are unlikely to see any big fluctuations. In futures markets, short term prices rose, though 2017 prices saw modest decreases, mirroring decreases in natural gas prices.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.29°F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 10/1), coming in 3.64°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to warm up slightly, with highs around 69°F and lows around 58°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 2.93°F above seasonal averages, and 1.43°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were cooler than expected last week and stayed below seasonal averages, an unusual occurrence given the recent trend of warmer than average weather.  Temperatures are expected to remain relatively steady over the next week in the Northeast, hovering close to seasonal averages.

Leave a Comment October 3, 2016

Market Update 09-26-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.16% for the week ending Friday 9/16 as prices rose 0.22 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $44.48 per barrel on Friday, down 3.45% for the day, but increasing 1.97% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 3.22% daily loss to close at $45.89 per barrel on Friday, but up about 0.26% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.41 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.74.
  • Crude oil prices ran up for most of the week, dropping most of the gains on Friday, but ultimately gaining for the week. Crude oil inventories have dropped for the 3rd consecutive week, one sign that the market may be beginning to balance itself out. Crude oil was up sharply on Monday this week on renewed hopes of an OPEC production limit, but after months of similar rumors, it will be interesting to see if any action is taken.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures increased 0.7 cents, or 0.24%, for the week ending 9/23 to settle at $2.955 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.77%, while total demand decreased by 1.97% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 0.747% decrease in marketed production, while an 83.33% decrease in LNG pipeline receipts impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 16th was 52 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 83 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 96 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 140 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 268 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 52 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract fell about 3 cents, trading at $3.04 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $5.62 to $38.14 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $59.92 between 4-5 pm last Wednesday (9/21) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $7.75 to average $36.67 per MWh, topping out at $84.87 on Tuesday (9/20) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.02 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.36 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.20 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.04 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose last week as temperatures exceeded seasonal norms by nearly 8 degrees.  Highs are expected to drop back into the 70s for most of the week, so peak prices are expected to fall. In futures markets, electric prices hardly moved, which mirrored the movements in the natural gas markets. No major change in forecasts or news meant there was no push in either direction.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 7.57°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/23), coming in 0.43°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down significantly, with highs around 71°F and lows around 60°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 2.36°F above seasonal averages, and 7.86°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were well above seasonal averages last week as we reached the official end of summer.  Temperatures are expected to drop down over the next week in the Northeast, which was felt by many this past weekend. Fall is officially here.

Leave a Comment September 26, 2016

Market Update 09-19-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 1.48% for the week ending Friday 9/16 as prices fell 2.53 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $43.03 per barrel on Friday, down 1.56% for the day, and decreasing 6.21% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 1.17% daily loss to close at $45.77 per barrel on Friday, and down about 4.67% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.74 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.13.
  • Crude oil prices fell significantly last week due to signs of slowing demand and increasing supply. Libya stated that they will begin to resume exporting oil, adding more supply to an already saturated market. US retail sales dropped 0.3%, greater than the expected 0.1% drop, showing signs that the economy may be beginning to pull back.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures increased 15.1 cents, or 5.40%, for the week ending 9/16 to settle at $2.948 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.38%, while total demand increased by 4.10% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was primarily due to a 11.32% increase in net Canadian imports, while a 4.37% increase in U.S. consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 9th was 62 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 69 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 74 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 184 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 299 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 65 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.86 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $8.59 to $32.52 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $60.48 between 4-5 pm last Wednesday (9/14) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $8.76 to average $28.92 per MWh, topping out at $73.40 on Wednesday (9/14) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.94 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.06 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.32 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.22 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell last week as temperatures returned to more comfortable levels.  Highs are expected to remain in the low-80s for most of the week, keeping price expectations low. In futures markets, electric prices fell slightly even as natural gas prices ran up. Forecasts have not changed much, which makes the gas run up more unexplainable than the falling electric prices.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 2.79°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/16), coming in 0.43°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to remain steady, with highs around 81°F and lows around 65°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 7.14°F above seasonal averages, and 1.64°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures look to be cooling off as we approach the official end of summer. Long term forecasts still point to a mild autumn.

Leave a Comment September 19, 2016

Market Update 09-12-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 1.48% for the week ending Friday 9/9 as prices rose 2.08 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $45.88 per barrel on Friday, down 3.13% for the day, but increasing 3.24% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 3.26% daily loss to close at $48.01 per barrel on Friday, but up about 2.52% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.13 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $2.39.
  • Crude oil prices climbed nearly 7% before backing off on Friday. A massive 14.5 million barrel decline in US oil crude reserves, mostly caused by shutdowns related to tropical storm activity in the Gulf, sent the market higher, but increased oil rig counts and the speculation of a US interest rate hike have kept prices in check.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures increased 0.5 cents, or 0.18%, for the week ending 9/9 to settle at $2.797 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Last week, August NYMEX settled at $2.871 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 1.39%, while total demand decreased by 6.44% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 14.52% decrease in net Canada imports, while a 7.89% decrease in U.S. consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 2nd was 36 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 64 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 78 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 196 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 306 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 43 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract rose about 3 cents, trading at $2.78 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $5.20 to $41.11 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $89.02 between 4-5 pm last Friday (9/9) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $7.05 to average $37.68 per MWh, topping out at $108.35 on Thursday (9/8) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.33 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.46 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.28 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.20 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose last week as the Northeast had a brief spike in temperatures, averaging nearly 7 degrees above the norm. Temperatures are expected to fall about 6 degrees this week, making things feel much more comfortable and lowering prices. In futures markets, electric prices rose as natural gas prices increased. Net injections for gas continue to be lower than the 5 year average, moving storage numbers closer to historical numbers. The lowering of storage numbers can cause the risk of price spikes to increase if the winter turns out to be cold.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 6.86°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/9), coming in 0.50°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down a bit, with highs around 79°F and lows around 65°F; Temperatures are forecasted to be 3.21°F above seasonal averages, and 6.00°F colder than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures were unseasonably warm last week as temperatures reached 80 degrees every day. Long term forecasts for this winter expect a La Nina effect, meaning the Northeast could be in line for a cold, wet winter.

Leave a Comment September 12, 2016

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