Market Update 08-23-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 7.88% for the week ending Friday 8/19 as prices rose 11.1 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $48.52 per barrel on Friday, up 0.39% for the day, and increasing 9.06% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 0.16% daily loss to close at $50.88 per barrel on Friday, and up about 8.32% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.36 this week, decreasing against last week’s spread of $2.48.
  • Crude oil prices closed higher every day last week, hitting an 8-week high as crude closed higher for the 7th consecutive session. Crude is up nearly 25% since the beginning of August after both Saudi Arabia and Russia have made comments about stabilizing oil prices. On the other side of things, the US oil rig count increased for the 8th consecutive week, which signifies a limited upside on price increases as more output is expected to come online.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures decreased 0.2 cents, or 0.08%, for the week ending 8/19 to settle at $2.584 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.8%, while total demand increased by 1.6% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was due to a 0.4% rise in dry production, while a 4.4% increase in power consumption impacted demand.  It is important to mention that despite this week’s decrease, Canadian imports are still well above seasonal norms, coming in at 6.9 Bcf/d as opposed to 6.1 Bcf/d at this time last year.  These numbers generally peak in January at the height of the winter heating season.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending August 12th was 22 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 57 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 56 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 327 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 405 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 26 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the September natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.66/mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $3.04 to $53.28 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $94.89 between 4-5 pm last Tuesday (8/16) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $2.08 to average $43.86 per MWh, topping out at $97.42 on Monday (8/15) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.74 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.17 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.90 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.47 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing continued its rise last week as temperatures remained above seasonal averages. With temperatures expected to be a bit cooler for most of this week, it is likely that we will see prices come down again. In future markets electric prices were up, despite a slight decrease in natural gas prices. Updated weather forecasts have caused traders to increase their long positions for this upcoming winter, which led to most of the price gains.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 6.07°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/19), coming in 0.21°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to cool down a bit, with highs around 84°F and lows around 69°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 2.50°F above seasonal averages, but 4.57°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • After a couple weeks of very warm temperatures, the Northeast is expected to return to more seasonal temperatures for the upcoming week. This August was the 3rd hottest on record for New York City to date, averaging nearly 4 degrees above historical norms.

Leave a Comment August 23, 2016

Market Update 08-15-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 7.00% for the week ending Friday 8/12 as prices rose 9.16 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $44.49 per barrel on Friday, up 2.37% for the day, and increasing 6.44% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 1.68% daily gain to close at $46.97 per barrel on Friday, and up about 6.10% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.48 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.47.
  • Crude oil prices continued their climb as they hit three-week highs, with gains continuing into Monday.  Russian energy officials hinted that they may be open to having talks with other oil production giants in the Middle East in the near future, while OPEC considers freezing output in order to stabilize oil prices which have been consistently low.   The market responded to this news, hoping that the recent global trend of oversupply in crude oil would soon be curbed

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures decreased 16.2 cents, or 5.90%, for the week ending 8/12 to settle at $2.586 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased 0.5%, while total demand decreased by 1.3% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was due to a 5.6% fall in Canadian imports, while a 1.3% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.  It is important to mention that despite this week’s decrease, Canadian imports are still well above seasonal norms, coming in at 6.8 Bcf/d as opposed to 5.3 Bcf/d at this time last year.  These numbers generally peak in January at the height of the winter heating season.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending August 5th was 29 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 53 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 57 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 361 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 440 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 24 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the September natural gas futures contract fell about 3 cents, trading at $2.54 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $15.38 to $50.24 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $100.00 between 3-4 pm last Friday (8/12) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $10.12 to average $41.78 per MWh, topping out at $120.13 on Friday (8/12) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.18 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.28 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.75 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.25 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing rose significantly last week as temperatures came back up above seasonal averages. With temperatures expected to approach 90 degrees several days this week, it is likely prices will remain high. In future markets electric prices were up, mirroring the increase in temperature. It was even warmer than forecasted last week, and this hot weather coupled with above average temperature forecasts contributed to an increase in prices going forward.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 5.50°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/12), coming in 0.21°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to remain hot, with highs around 89°F and lows around 74°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 5.86°F above seasonal averages, 0.21°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • For this week, temperatures are expected to follow similar patterns, with temperatures remaining higher than normal in the northeast and at or below seasonal averages across most other parts of the country.  Temperature forecasts for the month of August remain high and will average above seasonal norms across the nation.

Leave a Comment August 16, 2016

Market Update 08-09-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.73% for the week ending Friday 8/5 as prices rose 0.95 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in September closed at $41.80 per barrel on Friday, down 0.01% for the day, but increasing 0.48% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in September recorded a 0.20% daily gain to close at $44.27 per barrel on Friday, and up about 1.70% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.47 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.97.
  • Crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows last week with gains continuing into Monday.  Hopes that oil exporters would freeze production fueled the increase, though many still hold concerns about an oversupply of oil and gasoline.  Skeptics also worry that talks to limit production will fall through, resulting in little being done to reduce the global glut of crude.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (September) natural gas futures decreased 12.8 cents, or 4.45%, for the week ending 8/5 to settle at $2.748 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased 0.2%, while total demand increased by 2.83% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was due to a 1.4% rise in marketed production as well as a 1.4% rise in dry production, while a 8.3% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending July 29th was 6 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 54 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 41 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 389 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 464 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 3 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the August natural gas futures contract rose about 4 cents, trading at $2.88 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $21.22 to $34.86 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $46.58 between 4-5 pm last Monday (8/1) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $16.63 to average $31.66 per MWh, topping out at $55.03 on Monday (8/1) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.75 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.51 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $1.24 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.84 per MWh.Peak electric pricing fell significantly last week as temperatures came back down below seasonal averages. With temperatures expected to rise back up to the high 80s several days this week, it is likely prices will increase again. In future markets electric prices were down, mirroring the decrease in temperature. It was even cooler than forecasted last week, and despite an expected increase in temperatures this week, there was a decrease in prices going forward.  This is likely a reaction to temperatures falling even lower than predicted last week.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.50°F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 8/5), coming in 0.79°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase significantly, with highs around 88°F and lows around 74°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 5.00°F above seasonal averages, 6.21°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • For this week, temperatures are expected to come back up above seasonal averages in the northeast, and remain at or below seasonal averages across the rest of the country.  Despite the recent break from the heat, temperature forecasts for the month of August remain high and will average above seasonal norms.

Leave a Comment August 10, 2016

Market Update 07-18-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 2.27% for the week ending Friday 7/15 as prices fell 3.21 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in August closed at $45.95 per barrel on Friday, up 0.9% for the day, and increasing 1.19% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in August recorded a 1.23% daily gain to close at $47.61 per barrel on Friday, but up about 1.82% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.66 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.35.
  • Crude oil prices fell last week due to increased supply from US oil rigs and high production abroad.  Prices remain low to begin the week as news of a failed coup in Turkey eased concerns over a decrease in production from the middle-eastern country.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (August) natural gas futures decreased 4.5 cents, or 1.61%, for the week ending 7/15 to settle at $2.756 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply remained constant, while total demand increased by 4.4% from last week.  The consistency in supply this week was due to a lack of change in production values, while a 3.0% increase in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending July 7th was 64 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 77 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 95 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 507 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 586 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 60 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the August natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.76 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $2.50 to $42.32 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $81.29 between 3-4 pm last Friday (7/15) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $4.19 to average $38.13 per MWh, topping out at $87.21 on Thursday (7/14) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $2.15 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.89 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $1.03 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.70 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing fell slightly as highs were a bit below predictions last week. With highs expected to be in the same range this week, expect to see high peak prices once again.  In futures markets, electric prices decreased as natural gas prices fell back down about 2%.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.43°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 7/16), coming in 0.5°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase, with highs around 89°F and lows around 73°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 4.43°F above seasonal averages, 3.00°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures will remain hot for the second week in a row, and the forecast for the rest of July shows that there will be very few breaks from the heat. Long term forecasts for the rest of the summer still project to be above average for all of North America, so any relief would likely be temporary.

Leave a Comment July 21, 2016

Market Update 07-11-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 6.9% for the week ending Friday 7/8 as prices fell 10.5 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in August closed at $45.41 per barrel on Friday, up 0.5% for the day, but decreasing 7.3% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in August recorded a 0.3% daily gain to close at $46.76 per barrel on Friday, but down about 7.1% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $1.35 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.11.Crude oil prices fell last week as China and other Asian countries began showing signs of slowing demand. Additionally, the U.S rig count rising 5 of the last 6 weeks and a strong dollar are a few of the other factors driving oil prices downward.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (August) natural gas futures decreased 18.6 cents, or 6.23%, for the week ending 7/8 to settle at $2.801 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased by 1.0%, while total demand decreased by 3.7% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was primarily due to a 1.2% week to week increase in dry production, while a 5.0% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending July 1st was 39 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 77 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 83 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 538 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 599 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 42 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the August natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.83 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $9.69 to $44.82 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $90.99 between 4-5 pm last Friday (7/8) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $11.19 to average $42.31 per MWh, topping out at $109.47 on Thursday (7/7) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 decreased $0.30 per MWh in NYC and decreased $1.09 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.16 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.57 per MWh.
  • Peak electric pricing jumped significantly as highs were well above average last week, creating the first heat wave of the summer. With highs expected to be in the same range this week, expect to see similarly high peak prices.  In futures markets, electric prices fell across the board as natural gas prices fell back down about 7%.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 0.36°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 7/9), coming in 3.36°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase, with highs around 85°F and lows around 71°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 1.93°F above seasonal averages, 2.07°F warmer than last week’s average. Temperatures will remain hot this week, but the forecast for the second half of July has come down a bit since last week showing there may be some relief in sight. Long term forecasts for the rest of the summer still project to be above average for all of North America, so any relief would only be temporary.

Leave a Comment July 12, 2016

Market Update 04-15-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 2.9% for the week ending Friday 4/15 as prices rose 3.5 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in May closed at $40.36 per barrel on Friday, down 2.6% for the day, but increasing 1.6% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in May recorded a 1.6% daily loss to close at $43.10 per barrel on Friday, up about 2.8% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.74 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $2.22.
  • The biggest news in crude happened over the weekend with 18 countries meeting in Doha to discuss freezing output. The meeting ended with no resolution as Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran partake in the output freeze, but Iran has vowed to continue to increase its output to pre-sanction levels. Crude oil was up last week but most of the gains were lost on Monday morning as the market reacted to the results of Sunday’s meeting. Prices might have fallen further, but a strike in Kuwait is expected to reduce its output by up to 60% in the short term.

 

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (May) natural gas futures decreased 3.4 cents, or 4.42%, for the week ending 4/15 to settle at $1.902 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased by 0.4%, while total demand increased by 1.4% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 0.3% week to week decrease in dry production, while a 2.7% increase in residential and commercial use impacted demand.
  • The net withdrawal reported for the week ending April 8th was 3 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 22 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 49 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 956 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 849 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 2 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the May natural gas futures contract rose about 2 cents, trading at $2.00 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $0.87 to $32.65 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $42.41 between 8-9 pm last Monday (4/11) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $0.99 to average $26.78 per MWh, topping out at $37.02 on Monday (4/11) between 9-10 am.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.36 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.36 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.42 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.34 per MWh.
  • While temperatures did warm up last week, the change had very little effect on peak prices as they remained relatively unchanged. As we move into the shoulder months, one would expect to see very little movement in these prices unless there is a significant weather event.  In futures markets, electric prices moved up modestly despite a small drop in gas prices. Temperatures are expected to exceed seasonal averages over the next couple weeks and this small upward movement could be traders beginning to cover themselves in case it carries over into the summer.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.21 °F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 4/16), coming in 0.50°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase, with highs around 72°F and lows around 50°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 6.36°F above seasonal averages, 10.00°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures are heating up as highs are expected to exceed 70 degrees every day this week except for Wednesday. Looking ahead, highs are expected to be around 70, with lows in the 50s through the end of May. Outside of the occasional rainstorm, the Northeast has some very comfortable weather forecasted for the next few weeks.

Leave a Comment April 15, 2016

Market Update 04-08-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 6.0% for the week ending Friday 4/8 as prices rose 6.8 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in May closed at $39.72 per barrel on Friday, up 5.9% for the day, increasing 8.6% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in May recorded a 5.7% daily gain to close at $41.94 per barrel on Friday, up about 8.5% for the week. The Brent premium over WTI closed at $2.22 this week, increasing against last week’s spread of $1.07.
  • Crude oil jumped last week on renewed enthusiasm surrounding the meeting in Doha next weekend.  In addition, the dollar has weakened over the past few weeks causing commodities across the board to rise. Many analysts feel the impact of the meeting on Sunday may be marginal at best since a freeze would not decrease output when supply already outweighs demand.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (May) natural gas futures increased 3.4 cents, or 1.74%, for the week ending 4/8 to settle at $1.99 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply increased by 1.1%, while total demand increased by 0.5% from last week.  The increase in supply this week was primarily due to a 23.2% week to week increase in Canadian imports, while a 1.4% increase in residential and commercial use impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending April 1st was 12 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net withdrawal of 19 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 6 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 1,008 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 874 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 7 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the May natural gas futures contract fell about 2 cents, trading at $1.95 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC rose last week, moving up $9.79 to $33.52 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $47.90 between 9-10 am last Wednesday (4/6) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $4.57 to average $25.80 per MWh, topping out at $46.01 on Tuesday (4/5) between 7-8 am.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.24 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.08 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC increased $0.35 per MWh, while PSEG prices increased $0.01 per MWh.
  • Peak prices jumped dramatically as cold temperatures increased demand. Look for prices to drop back down around the previous week’s mark as temperatures will rebound back to a similar range. In futures markets, electric prices rose as gas prices moved up and forecasts for summer weather continue to predict an above average summer.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 8.21 °F below seasonal figures this past week (ending 4/9), coming in 1.00°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to increase, with highs around 58°F and lows around 43°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 1.71°F below seasonal averages, 9.07°F warmer than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures look to warm up this week as highs approach 60 and lows remain above freezing.  Looking forward, temperatures are expected to rise throughout the month of April. Updated forecasts for the summer still project temperatures to be hotter than average for most of the country.

Leave a Comment April 8, 2016

Market Update 04-01-2016

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 2.6% for the week ending Friday 3/25 as prices fell 3.2 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in May closed at $36.79 per barrel on Friday, down 3.5% for the day, decreasing 6.8% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in May recorded a 3.7% daily loss to close at $38.67 per barrel on Friday, down about 6.1% for the week.
  • Crude oil settled down over 6% last week and the losses have extended into Monday. On Friday, Saudi Arabia stated that they would only feeze production if Iran agrees to freeze its production, but Iran seems poised to continue to increase production since their sanctions were lifted. Russia’s output in March was a record high, which also leads to skepticism about how serious they are to reducing output. As quickly as prices rose in anticipation of an output freeze, the prices have begun to fall back down.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (May) natural gas futures increased 7.4 cents, or 3.93%, for the week ending 4/1 to settle at $1.956 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The April NYMEX settled last week at $1.903 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased by 1.19%, while total demand decreased by 4.8% from last week.  The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 10.03% week to week decrease in Canadian imports, while a 9.4% decrease in residential and commercial use impacted demand.
  • The net withdrawals reported for the week ending March 25th was 25 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net withdrawal of 22 Bcf. Last year’s net withdrawal was 10 Bcf.  Working gas inventories totaled 1,002 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 843 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for an injection of 22 Bcf.  When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the April natural gas futures contract fell about 1 cent, trading at $1.906 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $2.05 to $23.73 per MWh.  Peak prices hit a high of $29.63 between 7-8 pm last Wednesday (3/30) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $0.71 to average $21.23 per MWh, topping out at $31.22 on Tuesday (3/28) between 7-8 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2016 increased $0.56 per MWh in NYC and increased $0.08 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2017 prices in NYC decreased $0.53 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.08 per MWh.
  • Peak prices saw a small drop last week as temperatures were mild. With nearly a 14 degree drop in average temperatures this week, it’s going to feel much colder and possibly spur higher electric consumption. In futures markets, power prices for 2016 rose over the week, but dropped when you go out into 2017. This phenomenon mimicked gas with the prompt month gaining nearly 4%, but the 2017 NG strip actually was down from the previous week.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 7.21 °F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 4/2), coming in 3.93°F above forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to decrease, with highs around 48°F and lows around 33°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 9.21°F below seasonal averages, 13.86°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures at the end of last week greatly exceeded forecasts with highs almost hitting 80 on Friday. This is a stark contrast from temperatures over the weekend and it appears as if the cold weather will continue through most of the week. Looking past this week, temperatures are expected to increase as we move deeper into April.

Leave a Comment April 1, 2016

Market Update 10-06-2015

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-monthheating oil futures decreased 1.5% for the week ending Friday 10/2 as prices fell 2.3 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange,WTI crude futures for delivery in November closed at $45.54 per barrel on Friday, up 1.0% for the day, but decreasing 0.4% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in November recorded a 0.3% daily gain to close at $48.13 per barrel on Friday, but down about 1.0% for the week. Brent’s premium to WTI shrunk this week to $2.59, decreasing last week’s closing margin of $2.98.
  • Crude oil prices decreased slightly last week as the bearish and bullish news seemed to cancel each other out. A weak jobs report and a strong dollar have led to concerns about the growth of the American economy. Conversely, the US rig count hit a new 5 year low last week as production continues to slow in North America and this morning, Russia and OPEC announced they would meet in an effort to stabilize oil prices. Little is expected to come out of this meeting and prices are expected to remain around $45 a barrel for the near future.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas futures decreased 18.0 cents, or 6.84%, for the week ending 10/2 to settle at $2.451 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). October futures closed on Monday last week at $2.563 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased by 0.03%, while total demand decreased by 1.2% from last week. The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 4.73% week to week decrease in Canadian imports, while a 3.3% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 25th was 98 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 94 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 110 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 3,538 Bcf, 454 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 152 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for a build of 100 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the November natural gas futures contract remained steady, trading at $2.45 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $3.14 to $32.66 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $54.52 between 2-3 pm last Tuesday (9/29) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G increased, rising $5.89 to average $34.82 per MWh, topping out at $57.88 on Tuesday (9/29) between 7-8 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2015 decreased $1.49 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.35 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2016 prices in NYC decreased $1.30 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.84 per MWh.
  • Fall is finally here as temperatures fell into the 40s towards the end of last week. This week projects to be fairly mild with highs around 70 and lows around 50, so expect electric spot prices to remain low. In futures markets, electric prices fell all along the curve as natural gas futures dropped by nearly 7%.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 1.21°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 10/3), coming in 1.5°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to decrease, with highs around 68°F and lows around 54°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 1.21°F above seasonal averages, 2.64°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • Temperatures will remain fairly consistent over the next 2 weeks with highs staying in a tight range around 70 degrees and lows right around 50 degrees. These weeks will be a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors before we bundle up for what projects to be a cold winter.

Leave a Comment October 6, 2015

Market Update 09-21-2015

Heating Oil

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 3.6% for the week ending Friday 9/18 as prices fell 5.6 cents per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in October closed at $44.68 per barrel on Friday, down 4.7% for the day, but increasing 0.1% for the week.
  • Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent’s futures due in October recorded a 3.6% daily loss to close at $47.47 per barrel on Friday, down about 3.2% for the week. Brent’s premium to WTI shrunk this week to $2.79, decreasing last week’s closing margin of $3.51.
  • Crude oil prices had made a steady climb all week last week, but dropped nearly 5% on Friday after news that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged, raising concerns of global growth. US shale production continued to decrease and it’s estimated that $1.5 trillion in pending investments could go unused as production would be unprofitable at current oil prices. It appears oil prices are beginning to stabilize around $45 / barrel.

Natural Gas

  • Prompt-month (October) natural gas futures decreased 8.8 cents, or 3.27%, for the week ending 9/18 to settle at $2.605 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
  • Overall supply decreased by 1.42%, while total demand decreased by 5.1% from last week. The decrease in supply this week was primarily due to a 9.92% week to week decrease in Canadian imports, while a 15.0% decrease in power consumption impacted demand.
  • The net injection reported for the week ending September 11th was 73 Bcf, while the 5-year average for the week is a net injection of 75 Bcf. Last year’s net injection was 90 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 3,334 Bcf, 456 Bcf more than last year at this time, and 125 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
  • Market expectations called for a build of 73 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, the price for the October natural gas futures contract increased about 2 cents, trading at $2.65 /mmBtu on the NYMEX.

Electricity

  • Average peak prices in NYC fell last week, moving down $5.40 to $40.80 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $75.16 between 4-5 pm last Friday (9/18) in NYC; Peak prices in PSE&G also decreased, falling $4.64 to average $33.58 per MWh, topping out at $63.10 on Thursday (9/17) between 4-5 pm.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2015 decreased $1.27 per MWh in NYC and decreased $0.28 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2016 prices in NYC decreased $1.09 per MWh, while PSEG prices decreased $0.73 per MWh.
  • Cooler temperatures saw spot prices drop by over 10% from the previous week. With highs averaging only 77 this week, it would not be surprising to see average peak prices under $30 / MWh. In the futures markets, electric prices in the Northeast came off as gas prices dropped.

Weather

  • Temperatures averaged 6.36°F above seasonal figures this past week (ending 9/19), coming in 0.43°F below forecasted values. This week, the NYC area is expecting temperatures to decrease, with highs around 77°F and lows around 60°F; temperatures are forecasted to be 3.36°F above seasonal averages, 5.79°F cooler than last week’s average.
  • It’s amazing to think that temperatures can be nearly six degrees cooler this week than last and still be 3 degrees higher than historical averages, but that is a testament to how unseasonably warm it’s been the past few weeks. Expect temperatures to feel much cooler with highs in the upper 70s for the remainder of the week.

Leave a Comment September 21, 2015

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