Heating oil futures dropped by 0.6 percent for the week ending Friday 5/03. Earlier in the week, the Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of distillate fuel, which include heating oil, increased by 500,000 barrels to 115.8 million barrels from the previous week while analysts expected distillate stocks to remain the same. Crude oil prices settled higher on Friday following the US Labor Department’s monthly job report, showing an increase of 165k jobs for the month of April which was 20k more than anticipated. US Benchmark oil rose by $1.62 to close at $95.61 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international varieties of oil, settled at $104.19 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures for June increased by 1.6 cents, or 0.4 percent, in New York on Friday to settle at $4.041 per million British thermal units. Prices for gas rebounded slightly following Thursday’s 7 percent plunge after the EIA reported that inventories rose by 43 billion cubic feet the previous week to 1,777 bcf, which surpassed market expectations calling for a 28 bcf build. Even after Friday’s drastic drop, natural gas futures are still up 20.5 percent this year. Natural gas in storage stood at 795 Bcf, or 30.9 percent, below the year-ago level for this period, and 118 Bcf, or 6.2 percent, below the 5-year average of 1,895 Bcf.

Electricity

Natural gas prices declined significantly this past week on bullish inventory gas build and this led to a decline in forward power prices. Prices for the balance of 2013 (June forward) were down $0.60 per MWh in NYC from last week to $62.50 per MWh and down $0.65 per MWh to $54.90 per MWh in PSEG. Calendar 2014 prices were also down last week in both Con Ed ($0.55 per MWh) and PSEG ($0.55 per MWh). Last week temperatures averaged right around normal and on peak prices averaged $50.62 in NYC and $44.55 in PSEG. The forecast for this week is for temperatures to be seasonal and on peak prices should average right around $49 per MWh in Zone J NYC.

Heating oil futures gained 4.1 percent for the week ending Friday 4/26. Prices increased following the Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report showing that supplies of distillate fuels, which include heating oil, only increased by 100,000 barrels to 115.3 million barrels the previous week while analysts expected distillate stocks to increase by 300,000 barrels. Crude oil prices slipped on Friday following a weak US GDP report. The Commerce Department reported that US gross domestic product expanded by a 2.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter, which was slower than the 3.0 percent rate expected. US Benchmark oil lost 64 cents for the day to settle at $93.00 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude oil lost 25 cents to close at $103.16 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures for May decreased by 1.5 cents, or 0.4 percent, in New York on Friday to settle at $4.152 per million British thermal units. Gas lost 5.8 percent for the week. This was the first weekly decrease for the fuel in 10 weeks as warmer seasonal weather is expected to dampen heating related demand for gas. The Energy Information Administration reported that inventories rose by 30 billion cubic feet the previous week to 1,734 bcf, a slightly smaller injection than analysts were anticipating. Futures are up 24.3 percent since January. Inventories of natural gas are currently 807 Bcf, or 31.8 percent, below 2012 levels, and 94 Bcf, or 5.1 percent, below the 5-year average of 1,828 Bcf for this period.

Electricity

Spring actually arrived for most of the US last week sending natural gas prices down nearly 20 cents per Dth.   The decline in natural gas prices drove forward prices in the Northeast down. Prices for the balance of 2013 were down $1.50 per MWh in NYC from last week to $61.50 per MWh and down over $2.25 per MWh to $54.90 per MWh in PSEG. Calendar 2014 prices were also down last week in both Con Ed ($0.25 per MWh) and PSEG ($0.50 per MWh). Last week temperatures averaged 3 degrees below normal and on peak prices averaged $50.00 in NYC and $48.60 in PSEG. The forecast for this week is for slightly below normal temperatures (2 degrees Fahrenheit) and on peak prices should average right around $50 per MWh.

Heating oil futures lost 2.9 percent for the week ending Friday 4/19. Prices dropped following the Energy Information Administration’s report showing that supplies of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, increased by 2.4 million barrels to 115.2 million barrels the previous week while analysts expected distillate stocks to decline by 850,000 barrels. Crude oil futures were also under pressure as more negative economic data from the two largest users of crude oil, the US and China, raised concerns regarding weakening oil demand. US benchmark oil closed out the week at $88.01 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures for May gained 18.1 cents, or 4.3 percent, in New York last week to settle at $4.408 per million British thermal units after the Energy Information Administration reported that inventories rose by 31 billion cubic feet the previous week to 1,704 bcf, a smaller injection than analysts were expecting. Futures have now climbed 31.6 percent since the beginning of the year. Inventories of natural gas are currently 794 Bcf, or 31.8 percent, below 2012 levels, and 74 Bcf, or 4.2 percent, below the 5-year average of 1,778 Bcf for this period.

Electricity

Natural gas prices continue to climb on the sustained wintery weather in the midcontinent.   The surging natural gas prices are affecting power prices in the Northeast. Forward power prices for balance of 2013 are up $1 per MWh in NYC from last week to $63 per MWh while PSEG prices climbed $1.20 per MWh to $57.20 per MWh. Calendar 2014 prices were also up last week in both Con Ed ($1.00 per MWh) and PSEG ($0.60 per MWh). Last week temperatures averaged 2 degrees below normal and on peak prices averaged $52.50 in NYC and $52.70 in PSEG. The forecast for this week is for slightly below normal temperatures (4 degrees Fahrenheit) and on peak prices should average in the low $50 per MWh.

Heating oil futures decreased by 1.5 percent for the week ending Friday 4/12. Prices slumped following the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report which showed that distillate fuel inventories dropped by 200,000 barrels to 112.8 million barrels the previous week while analysts expected a decline of 1.8 million barrels. US benchmark oil fell by $2.22, or 2.4 percent, on Friday to settle at $91.29 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude lost $1.34 to close at $103.04 on the ICE futures exchange in London.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures for May advanced by 8.3 cents, or 2.0 percent, on Friday to settle at $4.222 per million British thermal units, the fuel’s highest close since August 2011. Earlier in the week, the Energy Information Administration reported that stockpiles of natural gas fell by 14 billion cubic feet to 1,673 Bcf for the week ending 4/5 which sharply contrasts with this period’s 5-year average and year-ago net injections of 15 Bcf and 11 Bcf, respectively, as cold weather this year increased heating demand for this fuel. Inventories of natural gas are currently 804 Bcf, or 32.5 percent, below 2012 levels, and 66 Bcf, or 3.8 percent, below the 5-year average of 1,739 Bcf for this period.

Electricity

Natural gas prices continue to climb on the sustained wintery weather in the midcontinent.   The surging natural gas prices are affecting power prices in the Northeast. Forward power prices for the balance of 2013 are up $2 per MWh in NYC from last week to $62 per MWh while PSEG prices climbed $1.75 per MWh to $56 per MWh. Last week temperatures averaged 5 degrees above normal which was a couple of degrees cooler than forecasted. Last week, on peak prices averaged $49 in NYC. The forecast for this week is for slightly above normal temperatures and on peak prices should average in the low $50 per MWh. Last week, the NYISO had its monthly auction for ICAP. The in-city capacity cleared at $15.50 per kW-month this is up from the strip auction that cleared at $14.80 per kW-month. The Rest of State capacity also cleared above the strip auction settling at $4.50 per kW-month vs. the strip auction price of $4.20 per kW-month.

Heating oil futures dropped by 1.8 percent on Friday 4/5 following a disappointing US jobs report, which cast doubt on the strength of the US economic recovery. The Labor Department reported that US employers only added 88,000 jobs in March, the fewest in 9 months and far less than the 200,000 economists were expecting. US benchmark oil lost 4.8% for the week after the EIA reported that oil inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels the previous week to 388.6 million barrels, the highest level since 1990. Slower US growth combined with rising supplies is a sign that oil prices may remain under pressure in the coming weeks. US benchmark oil settled at $92.70 a barrel in New York on Friday. Brent crude fell by $2.19 on the ICE futures exchange to close at $104.15, its lowest settlement since July.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures for May delivery surged by 17.8 cents or 4.5 percent on Friday to settle at $4.125 per million Btu. Despite milder weather forecasts, prices spiked following the EIA’s latest inventory report which showed that natural gas stockpiles dropped below the 5-year average for the first time since 2011. For the week ending 3/29, working natural gas in storage decreased by 94 Billion cubic feet to 1,687 Bcf. Inventories were 779 Bcf or 31.6 percent below 2012 levels for this time period, and 37 Bcf or 2.1 percent below the 5-year average of 1,724 Bcf.

Electricity

Last week temperatures averaged 4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal and prices averaged $52 per MWh for on peak prices in NYC. This week, the weather is forecasted to average 7 degrees above normal including a couple of days over 15 degrees above normal. On Peak prices for this week in NYC should average in the low to mid $50 per MWh as natural gas prices are remaining strong. Last week forward power prices for balance of Calendar 2013 (May forward) for both Con Ed and PSEG were higher by roughly $0.85 and $0.90 per MWh, respectively. However, Calendar 2014 prices were down in Con Ed by $0.45 per MWh, while PSEG prices remained the same. Last week, the NYISO published the Summer Strip auction results and In City capacity cleared at $14.80 per kW-mo. This is up $3.10 per kW-mo from last year. The Rest of State auction cleared at $4.20 per kW-mo. This is up $2.95 per kW-mo from last year.

Natural Gas
Natural gas futures for May delivery settled at $4.024 per million Btu on Thursday. Futures rose by 2% for the week, the 6th consecutive weekly advance for gas. Prices remained above $4.00 per million Btu after the EIA’s latest inventory report showed that gas stockpiles fell by 95 bcf the previous week, more than analysts were expecting. Forecasts predicting below-normal temperatures for the eastern continental US states in early April also supported prices. Colder temperatures will keep heating related demand for the fuel elevated. Working gas in storage now stands at 1,781 Bcf, 3.5 percent above the 5-year average of 1,720 bcf for this period and 26.5% below 2012 levels.

Electricity
New York temperatures averaged only slightly below normal last week after the forecast had called for even cooler temperatures. As a result, day-ahead prices for last week averaged $52.34 per MWh and not the $60 per MWh that was predicted. This week, the weather is forecasted to average 4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, however, there will a couple of days nearly 10 degrees below normal. This should lead to on-peak prices averaging in the mid to high $50′s for the week. Forward power prices for the balance of Calendar 2013 (April forward) for both Con Ed and PSEG were higher by roughly $0.20 per MWh. However, Calendar 2014 prices were down in Con Ed by $0.20 per MWh, while PSEG prices remained the same. This week, the NYISO will be publishing the Summer Strip auction results.

Heating oil futures decreased by 1.9 percent for the week ending Friday 3/22. Concerns regarding the collapse of Cyprus’ banking system, which has the potential to destabilize the entire euro zone area and impact energy demand, weighed on the oil markets all of last week. Despite the uncertainty with Cyprus, light sweet crude oil futures for May delivery rebounded modestly on Friday to close out the week at $93.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.  Brent Crude on the ICE futures exchange settled at $107.66 a barrel in London.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures dipped slightly on Friday due to milder weather forecasts, however the fuel still managed to lock in its fifth consecutive weekly gain. Gas futures for April closed out the week at $3.927 per million Btu. Earlier in the week, the US EIA’s storage report supported prices after showing that stockpiles of natural gas decreased by 62 billion cubic feet for the week ending 3/15, which was below market expectations. The implied net withdrawal was 36 Bcf larger than the 5-year average net withdrawal of 26 Bcf. Working natural gas in storage decreased to 1,876 Bcf, which is 502 Bcf or 21.1 percent less than last year for this period and 162 Bcf or 9.5 percent greater than the 5-year average of 1,714 Bcf.

Electricity

The Groundhog got it wrong this year, which should not come as any surprise as he is right less than 50% of the time. On February 2nd, the Groundhog predicted six more weeks of winter, which should have ended on March 16th. Since then, most of the country has been stuck in a cold freeze. The New York area has averaged over 7 degrees Fahrenheit below normal and this week NYC is expected to average approximately 5 degrees below normal. This past week, power prices in NYC averaged $64 per MWh and with the temperatures forecasted to average 5 degrees below normal, power prices should average in the low $60 per MWh again. Over the last two weeks, forward power prices for balance of Calendar 2014 (April forward) for both Con Ed and PSEG were higher by nearly $1.90 and $1.80 per MWh, respectively as the forward price for gas moved higher. Likewise, Calendar 2014 prices are up as well for both Con Ed ($0.85 per MWh) and PSEG ($1.10 per MWh).

Heating oil futures dropped slightly on Friday 3/8 due to a surge in the US dollar. The US dollar hit a 42-month high against the yen and a 3-month high versus the euro. Brent crude, used to price oil imported by US refineries, decreased by 30 cents to settle at $110.40 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange. Benchmark oil for April increased by 39 cents to settle at $91.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures for April delivery rose by approximately 4.7 cents or 1.5 percent in New York on Friday to close at a 2013 high of $3.629 per million Btu. Demand for natural gas has been stronger than usual due to unusually cold weather which has boosted heating demand for the fuel. Below-normal temperatures are expected to persist in the Midwest and Western states over the next few weeks. The US Energy Information Administration’s latest inventory report showed that stockpiles of natural gas fell by 146 billion cubic feet for the week ending 3/1, while only 92 Bcf of gas were withdrawn from storage during this period last year and the 5-year average decline for the week is 107 Bcf. Total underground storage of gas now stands at 2.083 trillion Bcf which is 14.8 percent below 2012 levels and 14.8 percent above the 5-year average of 1.814 trillion Bcf.

Electricity

This past week, power prices averaged $57.70 per MWh with the weather averaging right around normal for this time of the year. The forecast for this week is for temperatures to average around normal again, but the first half of the week will be 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal while the back half of the week will average 5 degrees below normal. This should result in power prices averaging in the mid-$50 range per MWh. Forward power prices for balance of Calendar 2013 (March forward) for both Con Ed and PSEG were higher by nearly $0.90 per MWh as the forward price for gas moved higher. Calendar 2014 prices were up as well for both Con Ed ($0.40 per MWh) and PSEG ($0.80 per MWh).

Wholesale heating oil futures for April delivery fell by 5.6 percent for the week ending Friday 3/1 erasing all gains for 2013 and touching the lowest levels since mid-December. The oil market came under pressure on weaker than expected economic readings, a rally in the US dollar and on concerns related to the political gridlock in Washington which was set to trigger $85 billion in automatic spending cuts. US Crude oil lost $2.45 for the week to settle at $90.68 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent Crude futures, used to price international varieties of oil, closed at $110.40 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices for April delivery decreased by 3 cents or 0.9 percent in New York on Friday to close at $3.456 per million Btu. Despite Friday’s drop, futures were up 5% for the week. Forecasters are finding it hard to predict if the weather will be cold across the US through the end of March. Cold weather would keep demand for natural gas high since roughly 50% of US households rely on the fuel for heating. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report showed that natural gas in storage declined by 171 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending 2/22 which was slightly more than the 167 Bcf analysts were anticipating. Total inventory of the fuel decreased to 2,229 Bcf which is 307 Bcf or 12.1 percent below 2012 levels for the week and 16.0 percent above the 5-year average of 1,921 billion cubic feet.

Electricity

This past week, power prices averaged $48.50 per MWh as the weather was slightly above normal. The forecast for this week is for temperatures to average around normal. This should lead to power prices averaging in the low $50 per MWh. Forward power prices for the balance of Calendar 2013 (March forward) were lower in Con Ed with prices coming off nearly $0.85 per MWh. Much of the price movement can be attributed to March prices coming off $5.50 per MWh.   PSEG prices were up nearly $0.80 per MWh with prices stronger in the second and fourth quarter of 2013. Calendar 2014 prices were off slightly for Con Ed but PSEG prices were up nearly $0.50 per MWh.

Wholesale heating oil futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending Friday 2/22. Oil prices followed non-agricultural commodities down after the US Federal Reserve hinted that it may wind down its massive bond buying program earlier than expected. Oil prices were also pressured by demand worries after the Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.1 million barrels the previous week which was more than twice the expected level.  Light Sweet Crude oil settled down 2.8% for the week at $93.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent Crude, which is used to price international varieties of oil, rose by 57 cents to close at $114.10 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices for March delivery gained 4.5 cents or 1.4% in New York on Friday to settle at $3.291 per million British thermal units. Prices climbed on colder weather forecasts for the next two weeks, which is expected to increase heating demand for the fuel. Prices were supported by the data released by the Energy Information Administration on Thursday showing that gas stockpiles fell by 127 billion cubic feet for the week ending 2/15, which was more than analysts were expecting. Stockpiles totaled 2.4 trillion Bcf, which is 7.8% less than year ago levels and 18% above the 5-year average for the week.

Electricity

This past week, the weather turned out to be colder than forecasted which led to stronger delivered natural gas prices and thus higher power prices. Peak prices averaged $138.50/MWh up from the prior week’s average of $80/MWh. This week is forecasted to be right around normal and power prices should remain strong around $100/MWh; however, a lot will depend on how constrained delivered natural gas prices remain. Forward power prices for balance of Calendar 2013 (March forward) were stronger this week with Con Ed’s prices up $1.50 per MWh and PSEG prices were up $0.70 per MWh to $49.60. Prices for next January and February in both Con Ed and PSEG continue to climb. Con Ed was up nearly $3.00 and PSEG nearly $4.00 per MWh.